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Bad news : Wine crop down a lot

Good news: quality generally good

By Robert Mayne

With much of Australia’s winegrape harvest in, there are some startling if not surprising) deviations to recent vintages. It is expected to be the smallest harvest since 2000 and a third smaller that of last year, 2006, according to official statistics.

The statistics have been released by the Australian Wine and Brandy Corporation, the Federal Government’s wine authority, and show a likely harvest of 1.35 million tonnes. This means about 400 million litres of wine less than last year.

Good news for buyers? Yes, but not yet. While white wine will flow through into the system fairly quickly — from later of this year — red wines will hang around in stainless steel, barrel and maturing in bottle for a few years before release; stocks and new supplies should keep prices stable.. Then they will be more expensive.

And quality, especially of reds, looks good. Bunches of grapes are generally thinner and smaller, therefore intensity of flavour will be affected as well as yield. Drought, frosts and reduced water availability will all have an effect, especially in higher, cooler areas. Bunches are smaller and should increase colour and flavour intensities in those that have not been harvested yet. The good news side is that there has been very little disease in vines because of the heat and lack of moisture.

And the results of the 2007 crop are likely to be carried forward to the 2008 crop as the primordial buds in next season’s grape vines will be affected by poor development this year.

This does not means that there will be cheaper wines soon, though this may follow to some extent if exports continue their rise. It does however seem likely that a much-awaited return to balance (supply/demand) is possible, even likely in around 2009.

This year, 2007 (January to May) new bearing vines will yield only a two per cent increase hectares of bearing vines, a result of at least five years of subdued plantings, because lower financial yields to potential and existing growers.

I have inspected some of the so-far unharvested vines in South Australia, and they show the signs of stress and heat with little or no water available.

The “big” reds from makes such as Penfolds, many McLaren Vale makers including Hardy’s, some Coonwarra makers, Clare and Langhorne Creek will be highly intensive when they are released in three to five years. Hunter reds are likely to be similar — extractive, full flavoured and high in alcohol.

More detailed industry statistics will be released in June and July when results are clearer and winemakers can turn their attention to wines that have been picked, crushed and are undergoing fermentation.

Highlights of the 2007 vintage

Harvest likely to be 1.35 million tonnes * Smallest harvest since 2000 * Cool climate wines (generally smaller makers) will be hardest hit * Reds more affected than the white wines * Cheaper wines (casks and flagons) likely to be more expensive in about a year * 2009 level off in supply/demand

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